MDMoh DianMohammad Hassan Mohammadian · Realtor®

Mimico / Humber Bay Shores building intelligence · September 2026

Key West at 36 Park Lawn: the raw median barely moved, but comparable product and market time weakened.

The Jan. 1-Sep. 20 raw median was nearly flat. Matched bedroom-and-size checks leaned softer, while median days on market more than doubled.

By Moh Dian · 19 matched-period REALM broker full sheets verified

8 sales in 202511 in 202636 Park Lawn Rd

The right offer considers time and product, not only price

If Key West's median barely changed, why were some sellers waiting longer?

Imagine a buyer touring a one-bedroom at 36 Park Lawn while a current owner remembers a similarly priced unit from the prior year. The overall historical median moved only slightly, but the median time to sell grew and comparable-product screens leaned softer. The buyer needs to know whether the particular floor plan works; the seller needs to understand current competition and carrying costs while waiting. This is a hypothetical choice, not a promise about a real unit's market time.

For a buyer comparing one-bedrooms

Different one-bedroom sizes can move in opposite directions.

The source study identifies repeated one-bedroom size bands with divergent sales medians even though the broad building median was almost flat. The 2026 mixed median was $540,000; that is not today's listing price for all one-bedrooms.

Next check: Compare the exact den, size, exposure, fees and status certificate, then find same-building and same-layout completed sales rather than choosing an offer from the blended median.

Compare the actual monthly ownership costs →

For an owner considering a listing

A flat median does not guarantee a quick closing.

The 2026 Key West sample contained 11 sales with a median 49 days on market. Matched bedroom-and-size pricing screened about 5.9% softer, while the more specific sensitivity was about 6.1% softer.

Next check: Review today's competing listings, showing readiness, repairs and current mortgage/condo carrying costs. Set price and timing expectations using the exact condo rather than old building-level days on market.

Choose which repairs and positioning matter →

What to check before agreeing on a number

Is the completed comparable sale the same Key West bedroom, den and size product as this suite?
What would waiting an extra month mean to an owner, and what are the unit's current monthly charges to a buyer?
Have you inspected the actual floor plan, exposure, parking rights and current TSCC 2544 corporation documents?

The original 19 verified matched-period broker sheets and analysis remain unchanged. Historical median days on market and matched price movements are sample-specific, not forecasts or exact valuations for active listings.

Matched-period snapshot

The building median looked stable. The controlled and liquidity signals did not.

The useful reading is the combination: raw price mix stayed close, matched product screened lower, and completed 2026 sales generally took longer.

11Locked 2026 sales

$540KRaw 2026 median

49 days2026 median DOM

−5.9%Bedroom + size matched estimate

−6.1%Bedroom + den + size sensitivity

19 / 19Broker full sheets verified

The matched estimate has limited coverage and a wide bootstrap interval. These are historical building-level sold-listing comparisons, not a valuation of a specific suite.

The main finding

A near-flat raw median coexisted with softer matched pricing and slower resale timing.

$547.5K → $540K

Raw matched-period median: about −1.4%.

−5.9%

Bedroom + reported-size matched estimate.

−6.1%

Bedroom + den + reported-size sensitivity.

23 → 49 days

Median days on market more than doubled.

The deterministic bootstrap interval spans roughly −22.5% to +8.8%. It crosses zero, so the matched-product point estimate is a directional screen rather than a precise building-wide decline.

Product mix matters

The common 1-bedroom bands moved in opposite directions.

This is exactly why the building median alone is insufficient. The 500-599 sq. ft. 1-bedroom cell strengthened, while the 600-699 sq. ft. 1-bedroom cell screened materially softer.

1BR / 500-599 sq ft$483.5K → $530K

Sales: 2 → 5
Change: +9.6%
Median DOM: 23 → 36

1BR / 600-699 sq ft$560K → $446.5K

Sales: 5 → 2
Change: −20.3%
Median DOM: 26 → 73

The 2BR / 900-999 sq. ft. common cell was less dramatic: $725K to $700K, with one 2025 sale and two 2026 sales. Small cells require caution.

Exact-area cross-check

The raw $/ft² median looks much weaker—but the sample mix changed materially.

Usable exact finished area expanded from five sales in 2025 to all eleven 2026 sales. The raw exact-area median moved from about $926 to $765/ft², but that comparison is highly mix-sensitive.

$926/ft²2025 raw exact-area median · n=5

$765/ft²2026 raw exact-area median · n=11

−3.7%Two exact same-area repeats combined

$0.823 → $0.875Median historical maintenance / exact ft² / month

The exact same-area repeats are a 520 sq. ft. 1-bedroom ($487K → $485K) and a 990 sq. ft. 2-bedroom ($725K → $675K). Their two-cell geometric sensitivity is about −3.7%, far less severe than the raw exact-area median.

Building identity

Key West is the 44-storey tower at 36 Park Lawn Road.

Public building references identify Times Group Corporation as the developer, with 421 units and 2016 completion/registration. Public records identify TSCC 2544. The verified matched-period broker sheets overwhelmingly use corporation number 2544; two 2026 sheets contain source-entry number anomalies that are not treated as separate corporations.

36Park Lawn Rd

2544Corporation number

19Matched-period sales

TimesDeveloper/public reference

Building, interior and view context

Exact floor, exposure and usable layout still decide the comp set.

These preserved REALM images come from verified Key West sales. They show representative building and unit context only; they do not imply that every suite has the same finish, balcony or view.

Key West Condos tower at 36 Park Lawn Road — Key West tower / Park Lawn streetscape

Representative Key West condo interior — Representative 1-bedroom interior

Representative balcony and Humber Bay Shores view from Key West Condos — Representative balcony / view corridor

Preserved REALM listing photography from verified 36 Park Lawn sales; original brokerage watermarks retained. Images are descriptive context, not evidence of market performance.

Humber Bay Shores context from a Key West Condos balcony

Park Lawn / Humber Bay Shores context

The lake, trails and Park Lawn node are present-day advantages; Park Lawn GO remains planned.

36 Park Lawn sits within the Humber Bay Shores / Mimico condo node, with waterfront parks and trails nearby and direct access toward Lake Shore Boulevard West and the Gardiner.

City of Toronto material in 2026 continued to describe Park Lawn GO as a planned station, not an operating amenity.

Humber Bay Shores guide →Westlake Encore →South Beach →Beyond the Sea Star Tower →Condo-fee comparison →

Unit-level due diligence

How I would compare two Key West condos.

1. Match bedroom/den configuration and reported size. The opposite 1-bedroom cell movements make this especially important.

2. Narrow by exact finished area. Use exact-area repeats where available rather than treating the raw $/ft² median as a unit-level rule.

3. Compare floor, exposure, balcony and view. High-floor, lake-facing and city-facing suites are not interchangeable.

4. Verify parking and locker. Every matched-period sale reported one parking space, but ownership, location and locker terms must still be checked for the exact unit.

5. Read the current condo documents. Historical maintenance is only a screen; current fees, budget, reserve fund, insurance, litigation and special assessments require the current status certificate.

Methodology

How the Key West analysis was built.

1. Scope. Matching Jan. 1-Sep. 20 periods in 2025 and 2026, sold Condo Apt records at 36 Park Lawn Road, using the locked 8-vs-11 exact-address cohort.

2. Primary mix control. Common bedroom × reported-size strata are compared by median sold price and combined with a weighted geometric mean using the smaller year count as the stratum weight.

3. Stricter sensitivity. Bedroom + den + reported-size matching produced about −6.1%, close to the primary −5.9% estimate but with only three matched-weight observations.

4. Uncertainty. The deterministic bootstrap interval is roughly −22.5% to +8.8%. It crosses zero, so the historical matched estimate is not conclusive.

5. Full-sheet reconciliation. All 19 broker full sheets were freshly reopened before drafting. Exact area was usable for 16 sales; maintenance, exposure, parking, corporation and listing-photo evidence were reconciled directly from the broker sheets rather than imputed.

Sources & verification

Transaction evidence first; public sources for building identity and planning context.

Condos.ca — Key West Condos building reference↗UrbanToronto — Key West project / Humber Bay Shores reference↗City of Toronto — June 2026 Humber Bay Shores / Park Lawn GO item↗City of Toronto — July 2026 transit working-group action↗

FAQ

Questions buyers and owners ask about Key West Condos.

Did Key West condo prices fall in 2026?

The raw Jan. 1-Sep. 20 median moved from about $547,500 in 2025 to $540,000 in 2026, roughly 1.4% lower. Bedroom + reported-size matching pointed about 5.9% lower, while a stricter bedroom + den + size sensitivity was about 6.1% lower. The bootstrap range is wide and crosses zero, so the matched result is directionally softer but not conclusive.

How fast did condos sell at 36 Park Lawn?

Median days on market moved from 23 days in the 2025 matched period to 49 days in 2026. The common product cells also generally took longer in 2026, although the sample remains small.

What did the exact-area evidence show?

The raw exact-area median fell from about $926 to $765 per square foot, but the usable exact-area sample expanded from five sales to eleven and changed mix substantially. The two exact same-area repeats—a 520 sq. ft. 1-bedroom and a 990 sq. ft. 2-bedroom—combine to a much smaller roughly 3.7% decline.

What condominium corporation is Key West Condos?

Public building references identify Key West Condos as TSCC 2544. Seventeen of the nineteen matched-period broker sheets use corporation number 2544 directly; two 2026 source sheets contain obvious number-entry anomalies that are preserved as source anomalies rather than treated as separate buildings.

Is Park Lawn GO open?

No. City of Toronto material in 2026 continued to describe Park Lawn GO as planned. City Council later requested a working group with the Province, Metrolinx and other parties to examine ways to advance the station and other Humber Bay Shores transit improvements.

Does a nearly unchanged Key West building median mean an individual unit held its value?

No. At 36 Park Lawn, the historical building median was nearly flat, but different one-bedroom groups performed differently and matched-product price screens were directionally softer. The 2026 median of 49 days on market is also a historical statistic, not a forecast. Compare the exact suite with genuinely similar recent sales and current competition.

Unit-level Key West analysis

Comparing a condo at 36 Park Lawn?

Send me the listing or unit number. I can narrow the evidence to the closest Key West solds by exact area, bedroom/den layout, floor, exposure, view, parking, locker, condition and current condo documents.