North York condo analysis · 2026
I compared matched Jan. 1–Sep. 19 REALM sold cohorts, then stress-tested the result by layout, reported size band and repeat buildings.
A nearly identical average can still hide different condo options
Imagine a buyer shopping for a two-bedroom condo in Willowdale East and Bayview Village. The historical 2026 normalized medians were just $2,500 apart: $655,000 and $657,500. That makes the choice look financially equal. But exact two-bedroom medians favoured one area while the two-bedroom-plus-den subgroup reversed the ordering. The actual room dimensions, commute, schools, monthly fees and condition decide which suite is suitable. These are illustrative choices, not today's asking prices.
The 2026 sample contained 184 Willowdale East sales and 84 Bayview Village sales. Nearly identical overall medians hid differences in exact two-bedroom and two-plus-den groups, with different size and building mixes.
Next check: Choose an actual layout, compare like-for-like completed sales and total monthly ownership costs, and test the actual route to work, school and everyday errands.
Use the Ontario condo buying checklist →The two communities had nearly equal mixed 2026 medians but different subgroup medians and transaction volumes. Building age, fees, parking, level, condition and exposure still affect an individual unit's value.
Next check: Price from recent same-building and same-layout solds and current direct competition, then review preparation, fees and net proceeds.
Plan a sale around actual buyer options →The original REALM Jan. 1–Sep. 19, 2025 and 2026 apartment-style two-bedroom/plus-den cohorts remain unchanged. The $2,500 historical median difference does not appraise an individual unit or eliminate layout and building differences.
The answer in one minute
Willowdale East’s 2026 median was $655,000; Bayview Village’s was $657,500—only $2,500 apart. But exact 2-bedroom units had a lower median in Willowdale East, while the 2+1 subgroup had a higher median there. That is why a neighbourhood median is useful for screening, not for valuing a specific condo.
Source: REALM/PropTx sold records. Final public cohort: Condo Apartment records with Apartment or 1 Storey/Apt style, base bedroom count 2, sold Jan. 1–Sep. 19 in each comparison year. The filter includes 2-bedroom, 2+1 and a very small number of 2+2 records; subgroup comparisons below isolate exact 2-bedroom and 2+1 layouts.
The buyer insight
2026 exact 2-bedroom median: Willowdale East versus Bayview Village.
2026 2+1 median: Willowdale East versus Bayview Village—the direction flips.
Qualifying 2026 sales. Willowdale East offered more than twice the transaction depth in this matched cohort.
Share of qualifying 2026 sales at or below $700,000: Willowdale East 113 of 184; Bayview Village 60 of 84.
These figures describe different pools of sold units. They do not mean a 2+1 in one neighbourhood is inherently worth more than a 2+1 in the other. Building, size, floor, exposure, parking, condition and maintenance fees still control unit-level comparability.
Matched cohorts
Using Jan. 1–Sep. 19 in both years avoids comparing a partial 2026 year with a full 2025 year. I also normalized the final public cohort to Apartment / 1 Storey/Apt styles so multi-level and other condo formats do not distort the comparison.
| Community | Period | Sales | Median sold price | Median DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willowdale East | 2025 | 179 | $735,000 | 24 days |
| Willowdale East | 2026 | 184 | $655,000 | 28 days |
| Bayview Village | 2025 | 70 | $746,500 | 24 days |
| Bayview Village | 2026 | 84 | $657,500 | 30.5 days |
Layout check
The nearly identical overall 2026 medians hide a meaningful mix effect. Buyers should compare the layout they actually want before using a neighbourhood-wide figure.
Subgroup medians reduce one source of mix distortion but do not make every unit comparable. Exact area, building, floor, view, condition, parking, locker and carrying costs remain material.
Stress test
Willowdale East repeat buildings with at least two qualifying sales in both years had lower 2026 medians.
Bayview Village repeat buildings meeting the same threshold had lower 2026 medians.
Willowdale East same-building / same-reported-size cells with at least two sales in both years had lower medians.
Every qualifying Bayview Village same-building / same-size cell in the test had a lower 2026 median.
This does not turn a neighbourhood median into an appraisal. Bayview Village’s five most active buildings accounted for 40% of the 2025 cohort, for example, so building concentration can materially shape a community statistic.
Transit & planning context
North York Centre Station is on TTC Line 1. Bayview Station is on Line 4. Those are current transit facts that can matter to a buyer’s daily travel pattern.
Separately, the City’s North York at the Centre work remains active in 2026, with further draft-plan engagement identified for 2027. The City also maintains secondary-plan work along the Sheppard corridor. I treat that planning context as future land-use information only; it is not used to explain the transaction changes above.
How I would use this as a buyer
1. Match the layout: the 2026 exact 2-bedroom and 2+1 medians point in opposite cross-community directions, so start with the configuration you actually want.
2. Match the building: recent sales in the same condominium corporation usually matter more than a community-wide median.
3. Match the physical unit: reported size band, floor, exposure, view, parking, locker and condition can materially change price.
4. Normalize carrying cost: compare maintenance fees, property tax and financing alongside the purchase price.
5. Review the status certificate: reserve fund, legal issues, insurance and planned expenditures can change the risk profile even when two units look similar.
Method & sources
Primary market evidence: REALM/PropTx sold records. Four matched cohorts were preserved before normalization: Willowdale East 2025/2026 and Bayview Village 2025/2026. Final public style filter: Apartment / 1 Storey/Apt. REALM reports square footage in bands in this table output, so this guide does not calculate price per square foot.
TTC — North York Centre Station↗TTC — Bayview Station↗City of Toronto — North York at the Centre↗City of Toronto — Official Plan Chapter 6 secondary plans↗MohDian.ca — North York real-estate area guide→MohDian.ca — Buying a resale condo in Ontario→FAQ
The overall 2026 medians were almost identical in these matched samples: $655,000 in Willowdale East and $657,500 in Bayview Village. But exact 2-bedroom and 2+1 medians differed materially, so the neighbourhood median alone is not a sufficient buying rule.
Within the matched Jan. 1–Sep. 19 cohorts, the median was about 10.9% lower year over year in Willowdale East and 11.9% lower in Bayview Village. These are sample comparisons, not forecasts or appraisals.
The direction persisted across the main reported size bands and inside repeat building-and-size cells. In Willowdale East, 19 of 21 repeat building-size cells had lower medians; in Bayview Village, all 7 did.
Willowdale East had the deeper 2026 sample: 184 qualifying apartment-style sales versus 84 in Bayview Village. More transactions can provide a broader comparable set, but exact-building relevance still matters more than volume alone.
North York Centre Station is on TTC Line 1 and Bayview Station is on Line 4. Transit and planning context are treated as location facts here, not as explanations for the observed price changes.
Their historical 2026 normalized community medians were close at $655,000 and $657,500, but subgroup outcomes differed: exact two-bedrooms and two-plus-den layouts did not have the same relationship between areas. Compare actual floor plans, buildings, condition, fees and suitable same-product completed sales before making a decision.
Unit-level comparison
Send me the listings. I can pull the most relevant same-building and nearby sold comparables, compare carrying costs, and show where each asking price sits relative to recent evidence.