MDMoh DianMohammad Hassan Mohammadian · Realtor®

Explorer at Waterview at 58 Marine Parade Drive

Humber Bay Shores / Mimico building intelligence · September 2026

Explorer at Waterview: slower 2026 resale, but the price signal needs more context than one median.

I matched the same Jan. 1-Sep. 20 REALM sold window for 2025 and 2026, then re-opened all 14 broker full sheets to verify area, maintenance, exposure, parking, corporation data and listing context.

By Moh Dian · Data through September 20, 2026

6 sales in 20258 in 202658 Marine Parade Dr

A big price change can be a misleading starting point

The Explorer median fell 15.5%. Is that a safe discount to apply to a condo you are viewing?

Imagine a buyer falling in love with a lake-facing condo at Explorer at Waterview and assuming the building is now 15.5% cheaper. Nearby, an owner worries the same figure determines the resale price of a very different suite. Yet this historical raw median reflects a changing mix of just six 2025 and eight 2026 sales. Matching bedrooms and reported size suggested a smaller, roughly 6.0% softer screen with exceptionally wide uncertainty. These are hypothetical decisions, not current listings or guaranteed prices.

For a waterfront buyer

Your specific view and suite are not represented by one raw median.

The verified 2026 Explorer study includes eight completed sales at 58 Marine Parade and a raw median of $645,000. A floor, exposure, balcony, room size and actual lake sightline can change which completed sale is relevant.

Next check: Verify the actual unit's view, condo fees and current status certificate, then compare same-bedroom and size units in this building rather than assuming a blanket discount.

Verify a lake-view claim before paying extra →

For an Explorer owner

Do not price your unit from the scariest percentage.

The original study's matched-product estimate was about 6.0% lower, not the raw 15.5% decline. The sample uncertainty range extends from roughly 27.8% lower to 33.6% higher, and 2025 exact-area coverage was thin.

Next check: Compare the current same-layout sold and active product, view and condition, parking, locker rights, and carrying expenses. Use a net-proceeds calculation rather than translating the historical median directly into an asking price.

Evaluate your actual seller outcome →

Ask these questions before treating the 2026 data as a valuation

Which completed Explorer sale most closely matches this unit's bedroom count, reported area, view corridor, floor and renovation quality?
Is the price comparison based on the raw 15.5% mixed-median movement or the narrower matched-product screen with a wide uncertainty interval?
Have I verified today's maintenance costs, status-certificate information, parking and locker rights and live competing listings?

The original January–September REALM samples and 14 verified full sheets remain unchanged. Only six 2025 and eight 2026 sales were included; the matched estimate has wide uncertainty that crosses zero, and exact area in 2025 is especially sparse. It cannot predict the current value of a particular suite or future rent.

2026 resale snapshot

Explorer had more matched-period sales, but they took longer to sell.

The raw median moved lower, yet suite size and price range changed enough that a matched-product sensitivity is essential before interpreting the headline.

8Verified 2026 sales

$645KRaw median sold price

34.5 daysMedian DOM

38%Sold within 30 days

$785Median sold / exact reported ft²

$1.218Median maintenance / exact ft² / month

Matched Jan. 1-Sep. 20 periods: 6 sales in 2025 and 8 in 2026. Sold counts describe completed transactions, not total listing supply or sell-through probability.

What changed?

The raw median fell sharply, but the matched-product result is much less decisive.

$763.5K → $645K

Raw matched-period median: −15.5%.

−6.0%

Bedroom + reported-size matched estimate.

$921 → $785 / ft²

Exact-area median sensitivity: −14.8%.

13.5 → 34.5 days

Median DOM slowed materially.

The raw and exact-area directions are softer, but 2025 exact-area coverage is only three sales and the matched bootstrap range crosses zero. This is not evidence for one precise Explorer appreciation/depreciation rate.

Matched-product sensitivity

Matching bedroom count and reported size points about 6.0% lower—with very wide uncertainty.

Four common bedroom × reported-size strata were available, but each contributes only one matched-weight observation. That leaves the point estimate useful as a directional screen, not a precise index.

−6.0%Matched bedroom + size estimate

4Common matched strata

67%Matched-weight coverage of 2025

50%Matched-weight coverage of 2026

−27.8%Bootstrap lower bound

+33.6%Bootstrap upper bound

The 95% bootstrap interval crosses zero by a wide margin. I therefore describe the controlled evidence as directionally softer, not as a statistically stable building-wide decline.

Repeated-product checks

Explorer’s repeated cells do not move as one market.

The small cells illustrate why the raw median is composition-sensitive: one large 2BR+den comparison moved higher while other repeated cells were lower.

1BR / 600-699 sq ft$512K → $510K

Sales: 1 → 2
Change: −0.4%
Median DOM: 7 → 30

1BR / 500-599 sq ft$512K → $415K

Sales: 1 → 1
Change: −18.9%
Median DOM: 20 → 69

2BR / 1000-1199 sq ft$1.16M → $840K

Sales: 2 → 1
Change: −27.6%
Median DOM: 5.5 → 26

2BR+den / 1200-1399 sq ft$1.033M → $1.250M

Sales: 1 → 1
Change: +21.0%
Median DOM: 28 → 10

These cells are descriptive comparables, not indexes. Floor, exact area, renovation, exposure, parking, locker, balcony and lake/skyline sightlines can materially change a unit-level comparison.

Exact-area & carrying-cost sensitivity

Exact-area pricing was lower, but the 2025 exact-area sample is especially thin.

Only three of six 2025 broker sheets populate a usable exact finished-area field, compared with all eight 2026 sheets. That asymmetry is important.

$9212025 median sold / ft² (n=3)

$7852026 median sold / ft² (n=8)

−14.8%Observed exact-area movement

$1.1652025 maintenance / ft² median

$1.2182026 maintenance / ft² median

+4.5%Observed maintenance-intensity change

Historical listing-reported maintenance is screening context only. Current fees, inclusions, reserve-fund information, insurance, litigation and special assessments belong in the current status-certificate review.

Building identity

Explorer at Waterview is the waterfront condominium at 58 Marine Parade Drive.

Public building references identify Explorer at Waterview as a roughly 270-unit Humber Bay Shores condominium registered as TSCC 1826. City planning material describes the 58 Marine Parade site as a two-building mid-rise development connected by a podium.

58Marine Parade Drive

270Approx. units in public building records

1826Corporation number

14/14Broker full sheets reviewed

REALM entry quality is not perfectly uniform: two 2025 sheets report corporation number 1823 and several sheets contain corporation-prefix typos. The raw values are preserved in the evidence package; analytical building identity is normalized to TSCC 1826.

Building and unit context

Explorer combines mid-rise waterfront positioning with a wide suite-size range.

These images come from verified Explorer sold listings. They illustrate physical context only and do not imply that every unit has the same finish, balcony or view.

Explorer at Waterview exterior at 58 Marine Parade Drive — Explorer at Waterview / 58 Marine Parade

Entrance at 58 Marine Parade Drive — 58 Marine Parade entrance

Representative sold-unit interior at Explorer at Waterview — Representative sold-unit interior

Waterfront balcony view from a sold Explorer at Waterview condo — Representative waterfront balcony / view context

1088 square foot two-bedroom floor plan from an Explorer at Waterview sold listing — 1,088 ft² two-bedroom floor-plan example

REALM listing photography / floor-plan material from MLS® W12036768, W12980714 and W13211672; source brokerage watermarks preserved. Images are descriptive context, not proof of market performance.

Lake Ontario waterfront context near Explorer at Waterview

Humber Bay Shores context

The waterfront is immediate; future transit should still be treated as future.

58 Marine Parade sits directly in the Humber Bay Shores waterfront cluster near lakefront parks and the Martin Goodman Trail. That physical waterfront access is present-day context.

Park Lawn GO remains future planning context. City Council action in 2026 continued to focus on advancing the planned station and broader Humber Bay Shores transit improvements; buyers should not price a unit as though that station is already operating.

For Explorer itself, exact suite size, floor, exposure, balcony, parking, locker, condition and lake/skyline sightline are more durable unit-level comparison variables than one building median.

Explore Etobicoke →Humber Bay Shores neighbourhood guide →Lake-view due diligence →Condo-fee comparison →Nautilus 16 Brookers →Vita on the Lake →

Buyer / owner due diligence

How I would compare two Explorer units.

1. Start with exact product. Explorer spans compact one-bedroom units through much larger waterfront suites. Do not comp across that range casually.

2. Match exact reported area and exposure. A 600-699 sq. ft. west-facing one-bedroom and a 1,200+ sq. ft. waterfront corner suite are different markets inside one address.

3. Inspect the view evidence. Balcony direction, floor and neighbouring buildings materially affect lake and skyline sightlines.

4. Separate parking, locker and renovation. These attributes can move value inside a small building sample.

5. Normalize maintenance, then read current documents. Historical fee-per-square-foot helps screen carrying cost, but current corporation documents control the due-diligence decision.

Methodology

How this Explorer at Waterview analysis was built.

1. Scope. I reused the reconciled REALM/PropTx Mimico acquisition and isolated sold Condo Apt records at 58 Marine Parade Drive. The comparison uses the same January 1-September 20 window in 2025 and 2026 and keeps Apartment / 1 Storey-Apt styles.

2. Full-sheet verification. I re-opened all 14 broker full sheets and verified MLS, sold price/date, DOM, bedroom/den configuration, reported size, exact finished area when populated, maintenance, exposure, parking, corporation field and remarks.

3. Matched-product control. Common bedroom × reported-size strata are compared by median sold price. Each stratum is weighted by the smaller year count and combined with a weighted geometric mean.

4. Uncertainty. A deterministic bootstrap of the matched estimator produced a 95% range of roughly -27.8% to +33.6%. Because that range crosses zero widely, the matched point estimate is presented as directional—not definitive.

5. Exact-area sensitivity. Exact-area pricing uses the full-sheet finished-area field. Only three 2025 sales populate that field, versus all eight 2026 sales, so the $/ft² comparison carries an explicit coverage warning.

Sources & verification

Transaction evidence first; public sources for building and planning context.

Explorer at Waterview public building reference — 58 Marine Parade / TSCC 1826↗City of Toronto planning report — 58 Marine Parade development context↗City of Toronto — July 2026 Humber Bay Shores transit action↗

FAQ

Questions buyers and owners ask about Explorer at Waterview.

What did condos at Explorer at Waterview sell for in 2026?

From January 1 through September 20, 2026, I verified eight sold Condo Apt records at 58 Marine Parade Drive. Their raw median sold price was $645,000 and median days on market was 34.5. These are building-level observations, not a valuation of a specific unit.

Did Explorer at Waterview condo prices fall in 2026?

The raw matched-period median was about 15.5% lower, but the building sold a materially different product mix. Bedroom + reported-size matching pointed about 6.0% lower, while a deterministic bootstrap range ran from roughly -27.8% to +33.6% and crossed zero. The correct interpretation is a softer directional signal with substantial uncertainty, not a precise building-wide depreciation rate.

What was Explorer at Waterview price per square foot in the sample?

Among sales with a populated exact reported finished area, median sold price was about $921 per square foot in 2025 and $785 in 2026. But only three of six 2025 sales had usable exact area, versus all eight 2026 sales, so that comparison is a sensitivity rather than a clean index.

How fast were condos selling at 58 Marine Parade?

Median days on market moved from 13.5 days in the 2025 matched window to 34.5 days in 2026. Five of six 2025 sales sold within 30 days versus three of eight in 2026. That indicates slower observed resale in this matched period, not a forecast of future marketability.

What condominium corporation is Explorer at Waterview?

Public building references identify Explorer at Waterview at 58 Marine Parade Drive as TSCC 1826. Most verified broker sheets agree, while two 2025 sheets report 1823 and several entries contain prefix typos. Those raw anomalies are preserved in the research record instead of silently overwritten.

Did Explorer at Waterview condos definitely lose 15.5% of their value?

No. The historical mixed-unit 2025–2026 raw median was about 15.5% lower, but matching bedrooms and size pointed roughly 6.0% lower and the statistical uncertainty crossed zero widely. Different suites sold each year. An individual 58 Marine Parade unit requires same-layout current sales and a review of floor, view, condition, fees and corporation documents.

Unit-level Explorer analysis

Comparing a condo at 58 Marine Parade?

Send me the listing or unit number. I can narrow the evidence to the closest Explorer solds by exact area, bedroom/den layout, floor, exposure, view, parking, locker, condition and current condo documents instead of relying on one building median.