MDMoh DianMohammad Hassan Mohammadian · Realtor®

Grenadier Landing at 5 Marine Parade Drive

Mimico / Humber Bay Shores building intelligence · September 2026

Grenadier Landing at 5 Marine Parade: the raw median rose slightly, but comparable product leaned softer.

The Jan. 1-Sep. 20 raw median edged higher, while matched-product and exact-area screens pointed lower. At the same time, median days on market improved.

By Moh Dian · 18 matched-period REALM broker full sheets verified

7 sales in 202511 in 20265 Marine Parade Dr

Choosing a waterfront home requires more than a building median

Grenadier Landing's median rose slightly. Would that make your exact condo worth more?

Imagine an owner at 5 Marine Parade reading that the historical raw median was about 0.9% higher, and a buyer excited about the building's waterfront setting. The two may expect stronger prices for very different reasons. But when bedrooms and reported sizes were matched, the historical price screen leaned about 5.9% lower, and the limited sample's uncertainty crossed zero. The actual view, floor, layout and condition matter more than either general percentage. This is an illustrative decision, not an identified current listing.

For a buyer who wants the waterfront

Pay for the actual suite and view, not a general building reputation.

Eleven completed 2026 sales were in the locked sample at 5 Marine Parade. The median was about $580,000, yet the building's rooms, exposure and waterfront sightlines can vary. A 2026 sold median is not a current asking price.

Next check: Stand in the exact room and balcony, confirm the true view, check the area and den configuration, and verify current fees and the correct corporation documents before relying on past sale prices.

Verify a waterfront view at the actual unit →

For an owner considering resale

A small rise in the raw median is not a guaranteed sale-price gain.

The raw historical median edged up about 0.9%, while the bedroom-and-size matched estimate was about 5.9% lower and the stricter comparison about 4.7% lower. These are small cohort screens with uncertainty crossing zero.

Next check: Compare same-bedroom and area suites in this building, then assess floor, exposure, condition, maintenance costs and current competition before setting a list price or preparing renovations.

Plan the sale based on real buyer alternatives →

Three questions that keep the comparison practical

Is this 5 Marine Parade suite the same practical bedroom and den product as the historical sale being quoted?
Does the actual floor, waterfront sightline, balcony, parking and condition warrant the same price per square foot?
What do current TSCC 1507 records, maintenance expenses and active competing listings reveal that a 2026 median cannot?

The matched 2025 and 2026 REALM sales, 18 verified full sheets and the existing uncertainty analysis are preserved. The raw-plus-0.9% and matched-minus-5.9% movements are historical mixed-product and directional screens, not a current valuation or guaranteed appreciation rate.

Matched-period snapshot

The building-wide median and the comparable-product controls moved in opposite directions.

That divergence is the core finding: a slightly higher raw median does not mean like-for-like product strengthened.

11Locked 2026 sales

$580KRaw 2026 median

19 days2026 median DOM

−5.9%Bedroom + size matched estimate

−4.7%Bedroom + den + size sensitivity

18 / 18Broker full sheets verified

The matched estimate has limited coverage and a bootstrap interval that crosses zero. These are historical building-level sold-listing comparisons, not a valuation of a specific suite.

The main finding

A higher raw median coexisted with softer matched pricing and faster resale timing.

$575K → $580K

Raw matched-period median: about +0.9%.

−5.9%

Bedroom + reported-size matched estimate.

−4.7%

Bedroom + den + reported-size sensitivity.

26 → 19 days

Median days on market improved.

The deterministic bootstrap interval spans roughly −10.2% to +7.4%. It crosses zero, so the matched-product point estimate should be treated as a directional screen rather than a precise building-wide decline.

Repeated-product benchmarks

The deepest repeated cell is the 1-bedroom / 600–699 sq. ft. band.

That cell has seven sales across the two matched periods and moved only modestly lower, while thinner cells screened softer.

1BR / 600-699 sq ft$561.25K → $545K

Sales: 4 → 3
Change: −2.9%
Median DOM: 28 → 25

1BR + den / 700-799 sq ft$625K → $551K

Sales: 1 → 5
Change: −11.8%
Median DOM: 40 → 18

The second cell has only one 2025 transaction, so it is useful context rather than a standalone valuation rule. The 2BR / 900-999 sq. ft. cell also has only one sale in each year ($820K → $750K).

Exact-area & carrying-cost sensitivity

The raw exact-area median also screened softer, but its sample changed substantially.

Usable exact finished area was available for four of seven 2025 sales and all eleven 2026 sales. Median sold price per exact reported finished square foot moved from about $868 to $824. Historical maintenance intensity moved from about $0.986 to $1.033 per exact reported square foot per month.

$868/ft²2025 raw exact-area median · n=4

$824/ft²2026 raw exact-area median · n=11

−5.0%Raw exact-area median change

$0.986 → $1.033Median historical maintenance / exact ft² / month

There are no exact same-area repeats across the two matched periods. Because the exact-area sample expands from four to eleven sales, this $/ft² comparison is a supporting sensitivity rather than a controlled unit-level trend.

Building identity

Grenadier Landing is the established waterfront condominium at 5 Marine Parade Drive.

All eighteen verified matched-period broker sheets use corporation number 1507. Public building references also identify TSCC 1507 and Davies Smith Developments. Published unit counts differ between public sources, so this guide deliberately does not rely on a unit-count claim.

5Marine Parade Dr

1507Corporation number

18Matched-period sales

Davies SmithDeveloper/public reference

Building, interior and view context

Grenadier Landing is a lower-scale waterfront building where exposure and exact suite geometry still matter.

These preserved REALM images come from verified 5 Marine Parade sales. They show representative building and unit context only; they do not imply that every suite has the same finish, balcony or view.

Representative Grenadier Landing condo interior — Representative 1-bedroom-plus-den interior

Lake Ontario and Toronto skyline view from a Grenadier Landing listing — Representative lake / skyline view corridor

Preserved REALM listing photography from verified 5 Marine Parade sales; original brokerage watermarks retained. Images are descriptive context, not evidence of market performance.

Lake Ontario and Toronto skyline context from Grenadier Landing

Humber Bay Shores waterfront context

The waterfront is present-day context; Park Lawn GO remains planned.

5 Marine Parade sits directly in the Humber Bay Shores / Mimico waterfront environment, close to parks, trails, Lake Shore Boulevard West and the broader Park Lawn node.

City of Toronto material in 2026 continued to describe Park Lawn GO as a planned Lakeshore West station between Mimico and Exhibition GO, not an operating amenity.

Humber Bay Shores guide →Hearthstone 3 Marine Parade: different retirement-service condo model →Explorer at Waterview →Key West Condos →Westlake Encore →Condo-fee comparison →

Unit-level due diligence

How I would compare two Grenadier Landing condos.

1. Match bedroom/den configuration and reported size. Start with the deeper 1-bedroom repeat evidence before using the building median.

2. Narrow by exact finished area. The raw exact-area median is mix-sensitive here because exact-area coverage changes materially between years.

3. Compare floor, exposure, balcony and view. Lake and skyline corridors are not interchangeable across stacks and floors.

4. Verify parking and locker. Every matched-period sale reported at least one parking space, but ownership, location and locker terms must still be checked for the exact unit.

5. Read the current condo documents. Historical maintenance is only a screen; current fees, budget, reserve fund, insurance, litigation and special assessments require the current status certificate.

Methodology

How the Grenadier Landing analysis was built.

1. Scope. Matching Jan. 1-Sep. 20 periods in 2025 and 2026, sold Condo Apt records at 5 Marine Parade Drive, using the locked 7-vs-11 exact-address cohort.

2. Primary mix control. Common bedroom × reported-size strata are compared by median sold price and combined with a weighted geometric mean using the smaller year count as the stratum weight.

3. Stricter sensitivity. Bedroom + den + reported-size matching produced about −4.7%, directionally similar to the primary −5.9% estimate.

4. Uncertainty. The deterministic bootstrap interval is roughly −10.2% to +7.4%. It crosses zero, so the historical matched estimate is not conclusive.

5. Full-sheet reconciliation. All 18 broker full sheets were freshly reopened before drafting. Exact area was usable for 15 sales; maintenance, exposure, parking, corporation and listing-photo evidence were reconciled directly from the broker sheets rather than imputed.

Sources & verification

Transaction evidence first; public sources for building identity and planning context.

Precondo — Grenadier Landing building reference↗Dash — Grenadier Landing / TSCC 1507 reference↗City of Toronto — June 2026 Humber Bay Shores / Park Lawn GO item↗City of Toronto — July 2026 transit working-group action↗

FAQ

Questions buyers and owners ask about Grenadier Landing.

Did Grenadier Landing condo prices rise in 2026?

The raw Jan. 1-Sep. 20 median moved from about $575,000 in 2025 to $580,000 in 2026, roughly 0.9% higher. But bedroom + reported-size matching pointed about 5.9% lower, and a stricter bedroom + den + size sensitivity was about 4.7% lower. The bootstrap range crosses zero, so the matched signal is directional rather than conclusive.

How fast did condos sell at 5 Marine Parade?

Median days on market improved from 26 days in the 2025 matched period to 19 days in 2026. The deeper 1-bedroom / 600-699 sq. ft. repeated cell also improved slightly from 28 to 25 median days on market.

What did the exact-area evidence show?

Usable exact finished area was available for four 2025 sales and all eleven 2026 sales. The raw median sold price per exact reported finished square foot moved from about $868 to $824, roughly 5.0% lower. Because the exact-area sample expands materially and there are no exact same-area repeats across the two years, this is a supporting screen rather than a controlled unit-level comparison.

What condominium corporation is Grenadier Landing?

All eighteen verified matched-period broker sheets use corporation number 1507, with the prefix rendered as TSCC on seventeen sheets and TSCP on one 2026 source record. Public building references also identify TSCC 1507.

Who developed Grenadier Landing?

Public building references identify Davies Smith Developments. Published unit counts vary between sources, so this guide does not use a unit-count claim in the analysis.

Is Park Lawn GO open?

No. City of Toronto material in 2026 continued to describe Park Lawn GO as a planned station on the Lakeshore West line, not an operating amenity.

Does a higher Grenadier Landing raw median mean my waterfront condo gained value?

Not necessarily. The historical raw median was about 0.9% higher while matched bedroom-and-size results screened about 5.9% lower, with uncertainty spanning both directions. View, floor, layout, exact area, fees and current competing sales have to be examined for an individual 5 Marine Parade condo.

Unit-level Grenadier Landing analysis

Comparing a condo at 5 Marine Parade?

Send me the listing or unit number. I can narrow the evidence to the closest Grenadier Landing solds by exact area, bedroom/den layout, floor, exposure, view, parking, locker, condition and current condo documents.